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Issue No. 170. - April 18, 2000
Contents :
1. Bosnia and Hercegovina :CHANGES OF VARIOUS SCOPE:
By Radenko Udovicic
2. FRY/Montenegro :PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR
By Slobodan Rackovic
3. Azerbaijan :OPPOSITION WARNS ON NEW PROTEST ACTIONS
By Farhad Mammadov
4. Special addition : NEW AT TOL
***
Bosnia and Herzegovina :CHANGES OF VARIOUS SCOPE
By Radenko Udovicic
Results of the local election in Bosnia and Herzegovina showed that
most successful were Socialdemocrat party in Federation B-H (SDP)
and Serbian democratic party (SDS) in the Serb Republic.
SDP won majority of votes in Tuzla, Zivinice, Lukavac, Serbrenik, Gracanica
and Sarajevo districts of Center, New city, New Sarajevo and Old City.
Individually, SDP has the strongest support in Zenica, Gorazde, Breza...Also
in other municipalities SDP won more votes than at the elections two years
ago. Compared with past elections, when SDP had won only in Tuzla, success
was complete Although the counting of the votes from abroad is still
not finished, according to current results in Federation B-H, SDP leads
in 18 municipalities, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) in 28, while the
recently ruling Bosniak Party of Democratic action won in 24 municipalities.
The number of municipalities can be confusing and cause casual observer
to think that the winners of local elections are SDA and HDZ. However,
if one takes into account that SDP is the winner in most populated and
urbane municipalities, it is clear that majority of persons living in Federation
voted for socialdemocrats. For example, SDA won in Trnovo with only 800
voters, while SDP won as much as 62 per cent votes in Tuzla, the electorate
of which has almost 100 000 persons. That situation caused SDP president
Zlatko Lagumdzija to ask for immediate general elections, eager to turn
present voters' sentiment into political capital and change the entity,
even state government. However, OSCE, which organized the elections, rejected
such notion explaining that currently there is not enough money to
organize them. According to reliable information from OSCE, general elections
should be held in the second half of October at earliest. It is interesting
that formerly ruling Party of democratic action had good results only in
the communities with strong ethnic tensions between Bosniaks and Croats
like Mostar, Bugojno, Travnik...
On the territory where Croats form a majority, HDZ achieved expected
victory. The party didn't have serious election competitors since opposition
Croatian parties didn't become a relevant political force. Most Croats
in Bosnia and Herzegovina view HDZ as a supranational movement, which makes
possible for them to remain present in the country where Croats are the
least numerous of three constituent nations. Croatian opposition parties
have minimized the fear of Bosniak domination, which was sometimes justified,
and offered no convincing alternative, which disastrously affected their
election results.
SDP is a leftist party and is a successor to the former communist party
of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Two year ago, two socialdemocrat parties in
Bosnia and Herzegovina united into one - SDP headed by Zlatko Lagumdzija,
whose deputy is Selim Beslagic. They are two charismatic leaders who enjoy
great popularity in Federation B-H. Lagumdzija is a professor of information
sciences at the University of Sarajevo and a fluent speaker of English.
He belongs to an old intellectual family and is a member of the reformist
pro-Western generation of Bosnian intellectuals. On the other hand, Selim
Beslagic, who has been Tuzlan mayor for the last ten years, belongs to
the so-called persons of the people. He is an engineer of technology gifted
with exceptional ability to get near ordinary people and win their trust.
Practically, mixture of personal capabilities of these two politicians
has secured their party a success with all classes. However, well-run election
campaign and competence of the leaders are not the only reasons behind
success of SDP.
The ruling SDA has been in power since 1990. That was the period of
hardest years for Bosnia and Herzegovina with war, radical social changes
in the country, huge decline of the standard of living. SDA simply wasn't
up to the burden of extremely complex political and social events in the
country. Shaken by numerous corruption scandals and tolerating crime
in the county, after ten years the party had to lose the trust of the Bosniak
voters.
In the Serb Republic, SDS won in as much as 52 municipalities. SDS
is a party of nationalist hard-liners. It was founded by Radovan Karadzic,
prime suspect of Hague Tribunal, and Momcilo Krajisnik, who was arrested
few days ago and brought before the Hague court. One of the reasons behind
the success of this party which was removed from power in 1997 is Krajisnik's
arrest. Many Serbs supported SDS out of, for international community unexplainable,
protest due to arrest of a Serb. Also, some supporters of the Serb radical
party, which was disqualified from the election race by the OSCE mission,
gave their votes to SDS.
Still , the main reason for SDS' success is the fact that it remained
a strong opposition which criticized reformationist government headed by
Milorad Dodik, tainted by numerous smuggling and corruption scandals. SDS
used all negative aspects of the government and obtained, besides votes
of traditional hard-liners, also those of disappointed voters who had formerly
supported now dissipated Unity Coalition. Party of independent socialdemocrats
headed by prime minister Dodik had a good election success. Once minor,
that party became second political force in RS when it came to power thanks
to alliance with others. In some municipalities solid results were achieved
by newly founded Party of democratic progress led by Mladen Ivanic, who
was once favored by international community as a candidate for prime minister
in the Serb Republic. Socialist party of Serbian Republic and Serbian national
alliance have suffered a great decline in popularity. It is supposed that
their former supporters now voted for SDS and Ivanic's party. However,
SDS today is not similar to the party which, together with Radovan Karadzic,
became a personification of all evil in Balkans. The party managed to adjust
to new peaceful progress. Backed by young intellectual members from Banja
Luka and Sarajevo, it even became a partner of international community.
Just after announcement of election results, its president Dragan Kalinic
said priorities of his party were economic progress, cooperation with international
community and direct implementation of the Dayton Accord. Due to such statements,
its former coalition partner Serbian Radical Party has already labeled
them as "quislings".
There is now a new question in Sarajevo - will only partial changes
in Bosnia and Herzegovina, within only one nation - Bosniaks, be
enough to start prosperity of the country and normalization of its national
antagonisms? Defeated Party of Democratic Action is already warning - Serbs
voted for SDS, Croats voted for HDZ, what about us? Although SDS rejected
such statements as excuse of the losers, many Bosniaks paused for a moment
over the fact. There are already speculations that at general elections
SDA could be resurrected as a balance over Croatian and Serbian hard
liners. However, such thoughts should be taken with great caution.
When it comes to global political interests of Bosniak nation and future
of Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is almost no difference between
SDP and SDA. Both parties think that primary interest of Bosniaks is to
form a united Bosnia and Herzegovina.They also think that Bosnia and Herzegovina
was attacked by Yugoslavia, backed by Bosnian Serbs. They therefore reject
the notion of civil war. Both parties constantly criticize Dayton Accord
and secretly hope for its revision. The biggest difference between the
two parties is how to establish relationships within Bosniak nation.
SDA has national-religious frame which took conservative Islamic customs
and introduced line of thoughts that were unusual in pre-war Bosnia. That
is why the leadership of SDA, therefore government, tolerated various extremist
groups which often created conflicts in Bosnian-USA relations. On the other
hand, SDP insists on complete secularization of the state and fitting Bosnia
and Herzegovina (ad Bosniaks) into modern European trends. That is why
this party has significant supporters among Serbs who remained to live
in Federation B-H, and even some Croats, which partly gives her characteristic
of multi-ethnic party.
However, leaders of HDZ and SDS have already stated that they consider
SDP primarily a Bosniak party and that they would not accept it as an all-Bosnian
party. Lagundzija's laconic answer was that he wasn't interested in opinions
of those two parties and that his partner was Europe. There is no doubt
that SDP will be welcomed by all relevant European institutions, but it
will also have to create relationship with nationalist parties, despite
the denial of its president. One of the most interesting situations will
be how will SDP behave in those municipalities where it won't be able to
establish a solitary rule. Main Lagumdzija's motto during election campaig
n was :"No coalition with the national parties"! Literal adoption of the
motto could leave SDP in opposition in many municipalities where it achieved
a marginal election victory. Finally, success of SDP in Federation B-H
could be commented as a great success for Bosnia and Herzegovina
SDP's president Zlatko Lagumdzija said his party will soon have twenty
mayors, the fact he judged as very significant. "Where we have established
our government we will allow unconditional return of refugees, fight corruption
and try to create economic progress" - said Lagumdzija. If SDP maintains
this promise, it will present a "lighthouse of hope" and roadsign to other
municipalities on how to solve refugee tragedy and secure prosperity. For
as long as there is a part in the country, even small, where nationality
and religion aren't primary values, there is yet hope for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
***
FRY/Montenegro : PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR
By Slobodan Rackovic
Long war of nerves between Podgorica and Belgrade related to possibility
of Montenegro leaving Yugoslav federation, in which indirectly participate
also western countries with their pressure on Montenegro to "keep it cool"
- is creating a constant tension in the whole region and doesn't contribute
to the stabilization of the situation in the Balkans. On the contrary!
Powder keg known as Montenegro is constantly worrying the world community
as the greatest dormant danger in the region for new war in the Balkans.
Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic and the president of Montenegro Milo
Djukanovic exchange threats, while two numerous and well-armed military
formations - Yugoslav army and Montenegrin police - have been on alert
for a long time now. Between them is the international community which
uses amateur and easily discernible status quo tactics in the name of alleged
peace in the Balkans. Such tactics is only postponing the final resolution
of the conflict between Montenegro and Serbia and is fruitlessly trying
to revive the dead FR Yugoslavia.
Everybody is suffering from such pat position, especially people of
Montenegro and Serbia (two republics which formed FR Yugoslavia on the
ruins of former Tito's Yugoslavia which contained 6 republics and 2 autonomous
provinces). Unresolved constitutional and political issue about the future
of FR Yugoslavia long ago caused complete boycott of all federal institutions,
including the Yugoslav Army, as well as rejection of all kinds of ties
between the two federal units, even the economic. That is best illustrated
by the situation on erbian-Montenegrin administrative borders - it has
become completely closed for all kinds of goods, even medicines, while
money transfers ceased at the beginning of last November, when Montenegro
introduced German mark as a new currency. Thus Serbia lost the only market
for its rather cheap products, especially agricultural. At the same time,
Montenegro which doesn't have a large food industry, had to start
importing those necessary goods from far more expensive markets of Hungary,
Slovenia, Bosnia, Croatia and Italy. The consequence is very low standard
of living among Serbs and barely better life of Montenegrins. It was a
hard additional problem for the international community, since it constantly
has to maintain fragile peace between Serbs and Montenegrins and, at the
same time, every now and then quiet down nervous Montenegrins who want
to restore their state with financial aid. Montenegrins were the first
Southern Slavs to found their state which they lost with the forced entrance
into Kingdom of Yugoslavia in 1918.
In such situation, nobody is neither content nor at ease, and Montenegro
has become a double hostage - both of Slobodan Milosevic who will use every
method to keep another piece of Yugoslavia (which, besides, has one of
the most beautiful coasts in Europe), and of western community, who is
artificially trying to save FRY to prevent yet another (5th) war in the
region of former Yugoslavia. Instead of providing military aid to Montenegro,
which it verbally supports wholeheartedly, and giving credits for Montenegrin
troubled economy, degraded during almost ten years of international sanctions
against FR Yugoslavia, international community is undertaking short-term
measures and plays very ungrateful role of fireman between Podgorica and
Belgrade. In this situation, when it is forced to keep almost 20
thousand armed policemen and when its main branches of economy - tourism
and maritime affairs - are confronted with complete collapse (not
to speak of other economy, especially industry), Montenegro has decided
to - wait. Otherwise, without clear support from the west (not to speak
of Peking and Moscow), this republic of 700,000 could hardly dare to wage
open war against Serbia with the population of ten million persons and
its formidable army without re-living what happens to the Chechnyans in
their confrontation with Russia. Besides, using tactics of waiting, prolonging
and avoiding conflict with Second army of YA, located on its territory,
Podgorica has already made some incredible success on its road to full
political and economic independence, a goal shared by the majority of Montenegrins.
Thus Montenegro effectively restored all attributes of state that were
ceded to federal state on 27th April 1992 when it hurriedly decided to
unite with Serbia into a joint state. That move automatically gave her
more trouble and indirectly dragged Montenegro into war with almost all
other ex-Yugoslav states, now internationally recognized countries, which
decided to go away from Serbian hegemony and Milosevic's terror. Today,
Montenegro has fully autonomous foreign policy and trade, establishes representative
offices (future embassies) all over the world, builds huge complex of residential
objects for foreign diplomats in Podgorica, signs international contracts
and joins international institutions (Pact for stability in South-Eastern
Europe...), runs independent import-export policy, has its own customs
organization, financial and monetary system, judicial system, information
outlets, airports and an air company, and many other things which make
a state independent. Parliament passed Law on Montenegrin citizenship,
but the less patient independence supporters are still unhappy since the
country doesn't have its own pa ssport, state hymn and a flag, although
everybody is proud of the fact that this republic cancelled visas for citizens
of all countries which enter Montenegro directly. Montenegrin Orthodox
Church has finally been made official (long rejected by the regime), as
one of the pillars of Montenegrin society, and the newly formed Duklja's
Academy of Arts and Science, authentic Montenegrin institutions, is more
and more overriding pro-Serbian Montenegrin Academy of Arts and Science
in cultural and social life. Monetary council of Montenegro, which has
been in charge of monetary politics in the country since
last autumn, said few days ago that last nominations of the Yugoslav dinar
will be revoked from circulation, which will make German Mark its substitution.
Montenegrin authorities didn't use administrative measures to send this
weak currency to history, but have wisely decided to leave it for
the market to decide about the survival of either currency. As expected,
in short time German mark swept dinar from streets, and now dinar has value
only in Serbia. "Yugoslav dinar will remain in Montenegro as any other
foreign currency!" - bluntly stated president of the Monetary council of
Montenegro Bozidar Gazivoda. At the same time, Montenegrin Chamber of Commerce
explained such move was necessary since Yugoslav dinar "disturbed monetary
system in the republic". It was explained that the German mark will be
only a step towards introduction of European currency Euro in Montenegro
which in this way once again stresses its pro-European, democratic orientation.
However, instead of Currency Board with international control and headquarters
in Geneva, as asked by opposition parties and foreign financial experts,
Montenegro will establish its Central bank which will govern monetary policy
in the country, but will not have authority to add new money, so all hyperinflation
trends will be stopped at the beginning.
Belgrade is not sympathetic to such a fast trend towards full statehood
of Montenegro and gradual removal of Podgorica from Belgrade and is therefore
exerting additional pressure on president Djukanovic and his colleagues,
using economic and also military measures. Within Second army a new battalion
was formed - Seventh battalion of the military police, which answers only
to the commander of the Army. In case of civil war in Montenegro
(which would also be incited from Belgrade), that battalion would do the
primary, but also the most dirty job for Slobodan Milosevic, similar to
what we have already seen in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo. Also, Milosevic
has already fired all Montenegrins from commanding posts in the Yugoslav
Army, which became practically army of a single nation and religion, politically
belonging to pro-Serbian parties and JUL of Milosevic' s wife Mirjana Markovic.
Milosevic went one step further and, overnight, brought many completely
loyal Serbian soldiers and of s into Montenegro so that, in case of war,
he would have no problems with those who have settled down in Montenegro.
However, that also had its counter-effect, so that recently about 200 Montenegrin
officers and generals asked transfer into Montenegrin police. Among others,
in police forces there is now former chief of Counterintelligence service
in the Yugoslav Army general Nedjeljko Boskovic, who is now transferring
his huge experience to officers of Montenegrin ministry of internal affairs.
It is expected that his example could be followed by former commander of
Second Yugoslav army general Radomir Martinovic who was relieved of his
duty because of good cooperation with civil institutions in Montenegro.
As a consequence, ranks of Yugoslav Army are weakened while those of Montenegrin
police gain new recruits.
However, neither party shows will to fight, so that the silent war
of nerves continues indefinitely. Will Montenegrin powder keg explode one
day depends on one man only - on Slobodan Milosevic! If he estimates that
conflict with Montenegro could help him to retain his more and more insecure
position in Serbia - then he certainly won't wait to start yet another
war, in this republic.If, on the other hand, he thinks that Serbian opposition
cannot influence his plans to stay in power forever, this time in separate
state of Serbia - then Montenegrins will be spared of the horrors of war!
Milosevic is truly unpredictable, but it is a real miracle that the
modern world, with all of its powerful mechanisms, accepts the role of
passive observer of Milosevic's whimsicality, whose innocent victim could
this time easily be - Montenegro?!
***
Azerbaijan: OPPOSITION WARNS ON NEW PROTEST ACTIONS
By Farhad Mammadov
The parliamentary elections, which are scheduled to be held in the
fall of this year in Azerbaijan, has stimulated on the beginning of active
discussions in the political life of the country. The Azeri opposition
that lost all the elections held in the country until now under the un-equal
competition conditions is intending to gain maximum result from these elections.
The oppositional parties of Azerbaijan have already begun activity for
providing fair election conditions for this purpose.
The current laws on the parliamentary elections and Central Election
Commission have faced with the strong pretensions of the opposition, as
well as the international organizations. That is why, the government has
stated on changing these laws. The laws on parliamentary elections and
CEC are being prepared at the presidential office and will, recently, be
presented to the parliament for discussions, according to the official
statements.
But there is no information about the essence of those laws and whether
the suggestions of the opposition are attracted there or not. Let`s note
that the current CEC is under the complete control of the government and
the opposition has shown it as the main reason of falsifying the elections
until now. The Azerbaijani government does not want to agree with the re-formalization
of the CEC regardless of demands of such organizations as the European
Council, OSCE, US Department of State, and others. Perhaps, in case the
government loses the control over CEC, the ruling party headed by the current
Azeri president Heidar Aliev could face with serious defeat at the up-coming
elections.
The Azeri opposition having no information about the essence of the
new laws prepared by the government has prepared its own draft laws and
presented them to the parliament. But these drafts have not been discussed
at the parliament, yet. The opposition insists on being discussed the laws
on the parliamentary elections and CEC at the parliament no later than
April. Because the Azerbaijani parliament goes for a summer holiday in
May, and the holiday of parliamentarians will last till September. And
the parliament that begins its autumn session could separate very little
time for the discussion of these laws by showing the lack of time as a
pretext (because the parliamentary elections should be held at the beginning
of November, according to the law).
In that case, it will not be difficult for the members of the ruling
party that takes the majority at the parliament to pass a law, which will
be useful for themselves. That is why, the opposition is stating beginning
mass protest actions in case of not discussing those laws till the end
of April at the parliament. And the demands are the same. The main demands
of the oppositional forces will be on forming normal election conditions
in the country.
Abulfaz Elchibey, presently being in a visit in Turkey, one of the
leaders of the Azeri opposition, former Azeri president, has also noted
the necessity of "holding protest actions". Mr. Elchibey said he
supports speaking the oppositional parties from a single conception at
the parliamentary elections.
As the up-coming parliamentary elections is considered an important
factor for the membership of Azerbaijan to the European Council, the opposition
hopes that the government will not dare to falsify these elections. But
it is also less believable that Heidar Aliev will easily give the control
on election mechanism that is considered one of the important government
key factors.
***
Special addition : NEW AT TOL
Transitions Online (TOL) (http://www.tol.cz) is
the leading Internet magazine covering Central and Eastern Europe, the
Balkans, and the former Soviet Union. If you aren't already a member, fill
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to sign up for a FREE annual
membership.
NEW AT TOL:
The debut of our redesign! Visitors will find a
much more user-friendly look, with easier navigation, clearer page layout,
and faster downloading. Please let us know what you think and any other
suggestions you might have.
First up this week is a new addition to the current
"In Focus" package: Lingua Fracas. One of our best so far, the package's
articles prove, once again, that language is one of the most fundamental
instruments of power.
IN FOCUS: Separate and Still Unequal
by Azam Dauti
http://www.ijt.cz/apr00/separate.html
With classes held in living rooms and private buildings
since its inception five years ago, the Albanian-language Tetovo University
in Macedonia has led an illegitimate existence. Though its student body
is constantly growing, the university's funding -- mostly from the ethnic
Albanian diaspora -- is wearing thin. The previous government decried it
as unconstitutional; the current government, more sympathetic toward ethnic
Albanians, has made overtures to address the problem, but the university's
future is far from certain.
In other "In Focus" <http://www.tol.cz/pack.html> articles,
Tim Judah documents the extinction of Serbian in much of Kosovo and
the discomforting questions raised by the now-dominant Albanian language;
renowned fiction writer Vasil Bykau speaks with TOL about the repression
of the Belarusian tongue, in which he has always written at great risk
to his career; Donald Kenrick maps the many faces of the Romani language;
Sophia Kornienko examines Vladimir Putin's efforts to cleanse the Russian
language; Polia Tchakarova demonstrates how Turkish-language programming
on state media could make Bulgaria a much-needed model for Balkan tolerance;
and Alisher Khamidov and Makhamadjan Khamidov chart the obstacles to constructing
a state language in Kyrgyzstan.
OPINIONS: Dog Tired
by Deyan Kyuchoukov
http://www.tol.cz/opina/dogtired.html
Forget ethnic tensions, a struggling economy, and
environmental damage: the problem that won't go away in Bulgaria is stray
dogs. Roaming in packs or solo, terrorizing Sofia citizens with their late-night
howling, homeless canines are one of the real drains on Bulgarian society.
If something is not done, argues Kyuchoukov, the abundance of dogs may
well trigger the next Balkan refugee crisis.
OPINIONS: Blame it on the Diaspora
by Tomas Miglierina
http://www.ijt.cz/opina/expats.html
Why would those who have fled the chaos and corruption
in the former Yugoslavia still vote for autocratic and nationalistic leaders?
Tomas Miglierina blasts the blinded sympathies of "expatriates who
sit in good, clean Western restaurants, and at the same time perpetuate
a system that cuts their home countries off from all the amenities of the
West."
WEEK IN REVIEW:
http://www.tol.cz/week.html
NATO critical of Hungary ... Havel decries mafia
capitalism
... Croatian war criminals, beware ... Now showing in Serbia: pirate
films ... Stoyanov questions a bill condemning the communist regime ...
Romanian king gets his castle back ... Belarusian public enterprises operating
at a loss ... Moldovan van drivers back on the road ... Council of Europe
wary of Ukrainian referendum ... Tuberculosis plagues Lithuania ... Stalin's
former bodyguard finds his voice ... Russia can't keep up the PACE
... Shevardnadze's sweeping victory ... Uzbek customs officers discover
material too hot to handle