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Issue No. 191 - September 22 , 2000.
Contents :

By Branka Vujnovic

2. FRY/ Montenegro : WHOEVER WINS - BAD!
By Slobodan Rackovic

3. Bosnia and Herzegovina : EVERYBODY HAS THEIR PRINCE
By Radenko Udovicic

 By Farhad Mammadov

5. Special addition: NEW AT TOL

 By Branka Vujnovic
    "Get out and vote. Change your destiny" - is one of the
mottos on the eve of elections in FRY on 24th September,
addressed to uncertain citizens. The upcoming voting is seen among
the public as some kind of referendum for or against the system.
    For the politicians, elections have become a matter of bare
survival. While the democratic opposition led by presidential
candidate Vojislav Kostunica enjoys a sudden surge in support in
almost every poll, Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic is facing
serious forecasts that he is about to leave power. Both sides
have reasons to worry - the government due to possible election
defeat, and the opposition because even a few days before the
elections nobody can suggest what "surprises" the government has
in stock.
    Mass police repression, the threats of military leaders who openly
side with the "supreme commander" serve to flare up the public
opinion that Milosevic is ready for all in case of losing the
elections, either introducing a state of emergency at the last moment
and cancelling the possible victory of NATO mercenaries or
stealing the votes and proclaiming yet another victory. The
evidence that the government is in a panic is that even the left
candidate Slobodan Milosevic actively engaged in the election
campaign. Although the ceremony during the opening of an aggregate
at the Djerdap hydro power station was almost stepped up to be a
history event, all ended with mediocre election rally with only 50
thousand people brought from all parts of Serbia. The same was the case with
Milosevic's arrival at the convention of the Socialist people's party
of Montenegro in Berane, a safe county with a pro-Serbian population.
His first visit to the second federal state during his term as
president of FRY managed to gather only 15 thousand people.
Journalists from TV Serbia didn't manage, even with the doctored
coverage, to persuade viewers that there have been 100 thousand
people around the plateau of the Berane airport, as they reported.
    On the other hand, the tour of the democratic opposition (DOS) and
presidential candidate Vojislav Kostunica throughout Serbia has
been unexpectedly successful, in spite of being ignored by the
electronic media, most of which is under government control.
Attempts of government propaganda to portray
Milosevic's opponent as a traitor weren't convincing since
Kostunica enjoys the image of the greatest nationalist among
opposition leaders and is a harsh critic of the western and NATO
politics, so there are more and more discoveries about  details of
Kostunica's private life. A government-controlled daily "Politika"
warns the public that the DOS presidential candidate has been
unfaithful to his wife for years, and as the worst perversion the
newspaper stresses his love for cats, mentioning that
Kostunica has 7 of them in his apartment. At the same time, the public
is receiving new propaganda instalments about more and more
incredible theories about a conspiracy orchestrated by the west
that, helped by the Democratic opposition of Serbia or, as
pro-government media call them  - NATO mercenaries - try to topple
the government at any cost.
    Last week federal information minister Goran Matic presented
the newest version of the anti-regime conspiracy, without
any doubt the most far-fetching so far, but also so absurd that it
brings into question any seriousness on part of the regime. It is
hard to even imagine the situation where policemen from the Serb
Republic camouflaged in the uniforms of Serbian police are
arresting all government officials the night after the elections.
In fact, they even do not need masks since they wear the same
uniform as their Serbian colleagues. According to Matic's
explanation, specialists of Bosnian Serbs would arrest regime
bosses if the opposition lost the elections, all in order to
persuade the citizens that Serbian police came over to the
opposition side. Together with uncovering dangers threatening the
country from the outside, the government creates an atmosphere of fear
by using political repression against political opponents, but
also "sporadic" outpourings of the people's anger as was the case
with the incident in the town of Kosovska Mitrovica where a group
of Milosevic supporters tried to prevent a DOS meeting. Opposition
politicians were hit with stones, bricks, tomatoes, eggs and other
kinds of food, and one stone hit presidential candidate Vojislav
Kostunica in the eye. A journalist present at the incident said that
there had been no spontaneity and that the opposition was attacked
by an organised group of young men.
     There are groups in Belgrade that attack the young people,
mostly resistance members, who are pasting different posters or
spray huge billboards of the left parties with black paint. The
same groups are also threatening opposition candidates. But even
they seem rather naive compared to speeches of some left
politicians. Those in the know of Serbian politics say that they
do not expect anything good to come out of the elections.
    The government is well prepared for every outcome. Even if not
taking up radical methods, postponing or cancelling of the
elections, they have all they  need to doctor election results
according to their wishes. Information about million and half
voters (at least million of them fake, as claimed by opposition)
in the election units Prokuplje and Vranje where Kosovo refugees
will be enabled to vote is a wide space for manipulations of the
regime. Where any, local or international, control is banned, if
we don't take into account monitors from friendly countries like
Belarus, Ghana, Nepal and other; where the local election
committees are stripped of their power and subordinated to federal
committee, regime-controlled; where lists of voters' are
unavailable and voting papers had been printed before total number
of voters was established; when nobody knows where to vote and
where are Kosovar election units - all is possible.
     Even to change the voters' decision  if it wouldn't be good
enough for the left. People from election headquarters of Slobodan
Milosevic announced that all is ready for big election feast that
is to start on 25th September just after the midnight, and
allegedly there are already victory speeches being written.
    On the other  hand DOS claims that without heavy thefts and
bags of fake ballots Milosevic stands no chance of winning. DOS
has called citizens to wait for election results on the city
squares, where they will celebrate their victory afterwards. Who
will celebrate on streets then, real victors or those who proclaim
themselves such.
    Military headquarters have no dilemma about who will win. Army
commander general Nebojsa Pavkovic said that on 24th September,
the day he called Day D, "soldiers will be on the frontlines" and
"protect their country and homeland", warning that "nobody can
take the power by force". Pavkovic chose Pozarevac as a place to
proclaim this very nervous threats where he promoted his new book,
saying that he was totally faithful to president Milosevic, who is
a "brave, decisive and capable visionary and is bravely deciding
on all questions involving freedom and homeland".
    With the nearing of the elections, more and more often is
quoted a joke of drama writer Dusko Kovacevic that there are 5
seasons in Serbia  -spring, summer, autumn, winter and war.
Political fair play is usual in countries where election defeats are
a normal situation, but with Milosevic accepting that he lost and
peacefully retreating would be, considering what we saw, more
shocking than yet another battle in this part of the Balkans.
FRY/ Montenegro: WHOEVER WINS - BAD!
 By Slobodan Rackovic
    Whoever wins the irregular federal elections unacknowledged
by official Podgorica, Montenegro can expect nothing good to come
from it - this is the almost unanimous opinion among the local
political analysts. The independence of the republic is to be the only
haven from the hegemonic idea of great Serbia, which has caught on
upon both government and the opposition in Belgrade!
    The majority in Montenegro who refuse to participate in the
federal elections, in a resigned mood and with no great interest,
await who will win Sunday. However, one cannot say the elections
have nothing to do with this republic that has been rapidly
distancing itself from Belgrade. If nothing else then because of
the fact that Montenegro is still formally united with Serbia;
however, there are only a few here who could be labelled as fans of
either Serbian government or Serbian opposition, of Slobodan
Milosevic or Vojislav Kostunica. Many think that both parties are
too nationalist and hegemonic and that they gave paternalistic
relationship towards Montenegro. So both Serbian government and
the opposition do not see Montenegro as an equal federal unit in
Serbian-Montenegrin community (people in both Serbia and
Montenegro avoid the name of Yugoslavia) and that level of
partnership is what official Podgorica insists must be established
if Montenegro is to stay in FR Yugoslavia.
    That is why Montenegrins think objectively and dispassionately
about the victor of the Sunday's elections, in the sense of what
is less evil for Montenegro and what could victory of either side
mean for this republic, especially in gaining bloodless
independence. The most direct was Montenegrin prime minister Filip
Vujanovic who explained the interest of Montenegrins in who will
win at the federal and presidential elections like this: "If
Slobodan Milosevic and left, procommunist and chauvinistic forces,
win; Montenegro will certainly continue on its road to
independence. If the winners are Democratic opposition of Serbia
(DOS) and its candidate Vojislav Kostunica, then Montenegro will
remain in joint state if Serbia agrees to radical redefinition of
relationship between the two federal units, on a loose confederate
principles". If we take into account that Kostunica (also called
"Seselj in tuxedo") and DOS are even worse nationalists than
Slobodan Milosevic, proven by the fact that they do not accept
existence of the Montenegrin nation, church, culture or language - so
it is clear that they will refuse Vujanovic's offer. The future of
FRY is, therefore, utterly unpredictable and obscure. However,
there are some nuances in attitude towards Montenegro between
the election rivals, especially regarding its separation from FR
Yugoslavia, which is influencing Montenegrin attitude towards what
will happen after 24th September. Most Montenegrins think that
Milosevic won't let Montenegro separate without a bloodbath and
also feel that the Democratic opposition  of Serbia would have a
somewhat softer attitude towards the separation. That is today's
forecast, but no-one knows what would truly happen if changes in
Belgrade took place. Milosevic is also sustaining from public
threats, but on election rally in Berane on 20th September he
"advised" Montenegrins that it was for their best to remain part
of joint state with Serbia. Democratic opposition is giving the
same "advises", but with less ominous allusions and, which is now
most important, with less power than the current Yugoslav
president is wielding right now, both mighty army and the police.
    It is the Yugoslav army that is demonstrating brute force in
Montenegro for the last few days, and head of Yugoslav army HQs
Nebojsa Pavkovic said repeatedly that the army will not tolerate
Montenegro behaving to the same scenario as Slovenia, Croatia and
Bosnia at the beginning of 90s. Still, Pavkovic softened his
attitude in an interview he gave to TV Montenegro on 20th
September, claiming that he never threatened neither to Montenegro
nor to Serbian opposition, and that his aggressive remarks were
addressed to foreign forces who were conspiring against FR
Yugoslavia. However, the situation in the army is totally
different. Second Yugoslav army stationed in Podgorica has just
been reinforced with reserve and active recruits from Serbia, as
well as with new military equipment. There is also an ongoing and
selective mobilisation within the units of 2nd Army. Its
headquarters suddenly cancelled all vacation and sick leaves to
its officers, even education in Belgrade of its most perspective
men. Although not officially proclaimed as such, all 2nd army
units are on full alert, which is a measure of caution. Emergency
situation in Montenegro at the eve of elections and possible
independence of this republic after 24th September is also
illustrated by the fact that also Montenegrin ministry of the
interior is fully prepared and that all available units are on
stand-by. Also, after Montenegrin daily "Monitor", counties are
preparing for battle by forming emergency centres. No coincidence
is the date of international military exercise in Croatian
territorial waters which is to be held on the same day as the
Yugoslav elections. Westerns sources also reported that a mighty
aircraft carrier George Washington is nearing Yugoslav
(Montenegrin) territorial sea.
    Montenegrins are certainly encouraged by the proximity of
international forces, although already mentioned prime minister
Vujanovic said to Greek newspapers "Eleftoros tipos" that
Montenegro is not happy with including foreign factors into fight
between Montenegro and Serbia. However, Milo Djukanovic misses no
chance to indirectly call upon international community, asking it
to protect Podgorica with force, although he always stresses that
Montenegro is capable of defending itself. Vice president of the
government dr. Dragisa Burzan said that Slobodan Milosevic would
certainly spark the war in Montenegro after the 24th September if
he had the force for it. Is it about removing own fear and
encouraging Montenegrin people is not completely clear, but one
should hope that dr. Burzan has access to data unavailable to
general public. Maybe it is primarily the evaluation that
Milosevic never, or only rarely, opens two warfronts at the same
time. Many things will depend on what will be going on after 24th
September. Because, if Milosevic fails to quickly shut down
protests of the Serbian opposition and strengthen his authority
with force (all indicators show that Kostunica has exceptional
advantage over him), Montenegro will momentarily be spared of
Milosevic's long accumulated anger due to insubordination of
Djukanovic and his team. But if he manages to deal with political
opponents in his own environment - then Milosevic could quickly
turn his hungry beak towards Montenegro. But in that case he would
go slowly, not wanting to risk possible intervention of the West
and also due to respectable strength of Montenegrin police (20-25
thousand peop le) and could not count on quick entry. It means
that Milosevic would repeat last year's strategy of occupying
borders with Montenegrin neighbours, blocking airports, roads and
harbours in Montenegro which would isolate the smaller republic
from its friends in the west and made her completely poor. Only
then would Podgorica government receive the mortal blow.
    One thing is certain: Montenegro will not, in any case,
recognise the results of the federal elections, although the
elections will be very important for it. It could easily happen
for them to mark the end of the Third Yugoslavia, but also the
beginning of new, fifth, war on the area of the ex-Yugoslavia.
International community now has the initiative and cannot let the
flame of war to engulf Montenegro and render it the biggest victim
of political earthquake on the Balkans.
Bosnia and Herzegovina : EVERYBODY HAS THEIR PRINCE
 By Radenko Udovicic
    During the first half of September there have been several
events in Bosnia and Herzegovina which could influence the outcome
of the general elections on 11th November. The parliament of the Serb
Republic voted against the government led by Milorad Dodik, who
has been clinging to power exclusively because of the vehement
support of the international community. In Federation B-H, one of
the key members of the Croatian democratic union (HDZ) Jadranko Prlic
left his party. Prlic is also Bosnian minister of foreign affairs.
The third event is the visit of Saudi Arabian prince Abdullah bin
Abdul-Aziz to Bosnia, which deepened divisions among
Moslems-Bosniaks and raised new questions about the disappearance
of the money Arab countries were sending to Bosnia. But to
understand the electoral context of these events, they need to be
explained in more detail.
    After early parliamentary elections in the Serb Republic in
1997 the government was made up of parties who joined the coalition
Sloga, thus comprising Socialist party of the Serb Republic,
Serbian national alliance and Independent socialdemocrats.
Supported by the Bosniak Party of democratic action (SDA), Sloga
managed to establish a majority in parliament and to form the
government the prime minister of which became Milorad Dodik from
Independent socialdemocrats, the least powerful party in the
coalition. The government in the Serb Republic was changed after seven
years, and the Serbian democratic party (SDS), which is significantly
responsible for the war in Bosnia, became the opposition. Milorad
Dodik took a reformist stance, opened up Serb Republic that was
under sanctions then to the world, attracted foreign investors,
established contacts with Federation B-H. International community
got in him a co-operative partner in Serb Republic, ready for
establishing peaceful relationship among the Bosnian nations. But,
on the next regular elections in 1998 Sloga coalition didn't
succeed in winning much more votes than SDS, so that both
political fractions had no majority in parliament. Next ensued
struggle about how will the new government be formed. Since deeply
opposed Serbian parties couldn't reach an agreement, prime
minister Dodik and his government continued running the republic.
But, in 2000 there was a fracture among the Sloga coalition.
Socialist party stepped out, explaining it with arrogance of the
prime minister who was removing this party's men from high
positioned posts in state and economy. In the meantime also
Bosniak SDA withdrew its support to the government accusing Dodik
that he didn't fulfil his promise about returning Bosniaks to Serb
Republic and not securing at least one minister's seat to Bosniaks
(the government is completely Serb-composed, although SDA has as
much as 20 per cent of parliamentary seats). Practically, three
quarters of deputies in the parliament were against Dodik's
government. Yet, the government survived since representatives of
the international community, who have somewhat protectorate
authority in Bosnia and Herzegovina, almost ultimately asked the
parliament not to vote about the government.
    The situation lasted until beginning of September, when the
parliament of the Serb Republic decided to hold voting about the
government. Results is total defeat to prime minister Dodik. He
was supported by only few members of his own party and deputies of
the Serbian national alliance. SDA representatives abstained from
the vote. As they explained, they were against prime minister
Milorad Dodik but not because of SDS' arguments - "the government
is not Serbian enough", but for the exact opposite viewpoint -
"the government is too much Serb-oriented and doesn't accept the
Bosniak interests". However, parliament ordered government to
continue with its work until the elections in November, since it
is futile to form a new cabinet only to disband it after the
elections. Basically nothing has changed in Serb Republic, but
Dodik and forces supporting him was clearly stated that he had no
foothold anymore and that his time was at an end. This "message"
is a powerful election marketing to the forces who are in favour
of a hard-line Serbian nationalist concept and are led by SDS
which won in majority of counties at the local elections last
spring. Even before the results of general elections, Dodik was
pushed aside and to gain political power he needs huge support of
the voters, which is unlikely in current situation.
    As expected, one of HDZ's key men left the party.  Jadranko
Prlic was the first president of self-proclaimed Croatian Republic
of Herbage Bosnia and is now minister of foreign affairs in B-H.
He was the brain behind the party, but he got into fight with
non-bending fraction which still cannot forget Herbage Bosnia and
accept the fact that Croats are living in Bosnia and Herzegovina
and not in a separate national state. It is rumoured that Prlic
will found a new party of democratic centre after the elections,
similar to HDZ's dissident Mate Granic in Croatia. Prlic enjoys
support of some Croatian intellectuals so that the new party will
probably have some famous members - ranging from those who weren't
politically active before to HDZ's dissidents, mostly party
colleagues close to Prlic. One of the pillars of the future party
should be Prof. Marko Tadic, former rector at the University of
Mostar whose removal was a motive for Prlic to leave HDZ for good.
Future party will surely be supported of international community
due to high reputation Prlic enjoys. It is also possible that many
Bosnian Croats who are disappointed with conservatism of HDZ gets
behind the new party. HDZ was left before by Kresimir Zubak,
former Croatian member of the B-H Presidency, also just before the
elections. It was expected that Zubak's new party would take half
 of Croatian voters in Bosnia, but that didn't happen. However,
Jadranko Prlic has much better political and expert potentials. As
an economy professor at a university, seasoned politician and
person with good connections in abroad as well as in Bosnia, he
could really create a respectable party. However, it is too late
to make it before November's elections. It is expected that Croats
will once again vote for HDZ, but that in the next period there
will be a new political atmosphere which could give powerful,
perhaps even leading role to Prlic and his new party.
    And finally in Bosniak's part of the Federation, visit of a
Saudi prince was used as an election ace of Party of democratic
action (SDA) whose confidence was already shaken at the local
elections. Prince Selman bin Abdul-Aziz, whose country gave a
billion and 200 million dollars help to Bosnia, opened the biggest
cultural and educational Islamic building in Europe. The opening
ceremony was held before 20 thousand believers from all parts of
Bosnia with Moslem population. Saudi present to Bosnia is
undoubtedly huge, so the local Bosniak-Moslem politicians decided
to hold opening ceremonies of all objects built from Saudi
donations at the same time throughout Bosnia, to show Saudis how
successful their policy was. Rich donors didn't find it
inappropriate, although prince said in his speech that "Saudi
Arabia didn't want to achieve any goal with this present". Great
mosque, able to accept the congregation of 3 thousand,
ultra-modern cultural and educational buildings, sport halls and
restaurants located in the most populated part of Sarajevo will
leave a deep impression on the local Moslems, but also in
tomorrow's Bosniak voters. Party led by Alija Izetbegovic presents
itself as the sole protector of the Moslem interests. If we add
into all this big mosque in Tuzla, hemodialysis centre in Sarajevo
and 1148 new or renovated apartments for refugees in Brcko, then
the election effect can almost tip the scales.
    Two months before the elections there are huge political
tensions in Bosnia - workers in bankrupted firms are on a hunger
strike, refugees and retired persons are blocking to roads, there
are fierce political duels between the government and the
opposition which accuses SDA of corruption and total economic
devastation. Many people think that Arabian countries, especially
Saudi Arabia, could do much more help with investing money into
aiding local economy than building exclusive centres and religious
buildings that are completely different in style from traditional
poverty of Bosnian Moslems. However, after this exclusive gift,
the government can say: while the opposition talks we work and
bring money in Bosnia! Bosniak religious leader Mustafa Ceric said
in his speech at the opening of the mosque in Tuzla: "Beware of
where you are going! You should go on the road to mosques in
Sarajevo, Tuzla..." However, during his visit to Sarajevo, a Saudi
prince gave an information that was until now unknown to the
Bosnian public. He said that the day after the fall of Srebrenica
his country collected and sent 200 million DEM help for the
refugees of that city. Refugees from Srebrenica who are living in
poor conditions throughout Bosniak part of Bosnia and Herzegovina,
have neither seen nor felt that money. It is presumed that the
money ended in private pockets so that the organisation of
Srebrenica refugees called them not to vote for SDA, a party they
deem is responsible for this theft. As much as Saudi prince helped
SDA with his visit, inasmuch showing the truth about the money was
an involuntary strike against the ruling Bosniak party. Elections
will show how important it was.
By Farhad Mammadov
    Regardless of all the international pressures and internal
protests, the current Azerbaijani government has refused to create
normal conditions for the November 5th parliamentary elections. On
September 18, the Central Election Commission [CEC] being under
the complete control of the authorities has rejected the
registration of the common candidates' list of the Party Musavat,
one of the leading oppositional parties of Azerbaijan.
    The Party Musavat faced with the same situation during the
parliamentary elections in 1995, as well, and debarring the party
from the participation in the upcoming parliamentary elections
with the same pretext has caused doubt to the results of the
elections beforehand.
    Now the pre-election situation in Azerbaijan differs less from
the situation in Belorus. The authorities as if to repeat the
measures taken by the Belorus president Lukashenco against the
opposition and the events happened in the country show that the
government does not intend to observe democratic norms. The
Musavat is not the only party that moved away from the elections.
On September 19, the Democrat Party of Azerbaijan [ADP-co-chairman
Rasul Guliev, presently living as an emigrant in the U.S. and
known with his strong oppositional position against Heidar
Aliev-F.M.] had to remain outside of the elections with the
decision of the CEC.
    According to the decision of the CEC, a part of the signatures
gathered by the Musavat and Democrat Parties were false. But the
government is also putting some steps towards giving a democratic
background to the pre-election situation. For example, after the
CEC has decided not to allow the Musavat Party to the elections,
it has not also registered the Democratic Alliance bloc, a
unification of small parties supporting the government, but not
having a social base. Even if that bloc is allown to the
elections, they had lest possibility to pass to the parliament by
their own force and it is supposed that the authorities have
sacrificed the Democratic Alliance bloc "for the sake of
    Another fact is that the Court of Appeal has not considered
right the decision of the CEC on the pro-governmental Communist
party, which consists of a few persons. The CEC has not registered
this party and the party has applied to the court, according to
the law. And that decision of the Court of Appeal is made for the
public opinion, as if there are an independent court system in
Azerbaijan. Let's note that the Musavat and Democrat Parties have
appealed to the Court of Appeal concerning the decision of the
CEC, as well. But there is no hope that the Court will issue a
positive decision on those parties.
    Now, as a result of election tactics of the authorities, none
of the oppositional parties can occupy a place at the parliament.
The CEC has registered only two of the oppositional parties, the
National Independence Party and the "Yurd" fraction of the Popular
Front, which is separated after the death of its chairman Abulfaz
Elchibey. This fact has not been faced simple, as well. Now there
spread such opinion on the special attitude of the authorities to
these parties. Let's note that those parties of the opposition had
also participated in the 1995 parliamentary elections.
    For now, the international observers are not willing to
comment the latest incidents happened in Azerbaijan. But
undoubtedly, the Azerbaijani government will face with the next
wave of the international protest. And undoubtedly, Heidar Aliev,
president of Azerbaijan, who is undergoing a medical treatment in
Cleveland since September 4, will not respond to these protests.
Let's note that several days ago he stressed in his speech in
Washington that "no one could pressure on Azerbaijan for
democracy" and "Azerbaijan has its own characteristics".

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 (Free Access)
Police Arrest Activists in Belgrade As Milosevic Makes First Appearances
Moscow English-Language Daily Claims To Have Proof of Serious
Election Fraud
OSCE Critical of Violent Elections in Macedonia
Russian Mafia Strikes Back in Bulgaria
12 Arrested For Murder of War Crimes Witness in Croatia
Prague Preparing for IMF Summit
Police Clamp Down on Opposition's Plans To Boycott Elections in Belarus
Auschwitz Synagogue a Reminder of the Past
Russia Formalizes Clampdown on Press
Albania Joins WTO

Our Take: Banking on the Prophets
    Pessimistic about Yugoslavia
    The full text of this article also appears below.

SPECIAL REPORT: Yugoslav Elections 2000

    Fear, Loathing, and Extremely Bad Taste
    by Dragan Stojkovic
    (Free Access)
    Filmed against the backdrop of a highway with a large roadside
billboard flashing photographs of Yugoslav President Slobodan
Milosevic and some of his better-known quotes, an attractive, lewd
young woman gyrates madly in front of the leader's face, running
her hands up and down her body and singing: "JUL is the only
choice, the good solution. Vote for justice, courage, and
honesty." That untamed television ad in support of the regime is
only a morsel of what is in store for viewers in the run-up to

   The Man Above the Fray
   by Milorad Ivanovic and Tamara Jorgovanovic
   (Free Access)
   For the first time in 10 years a challenger is leading the
polls over Milosevic: Vojislav Kostunica has a 20 percent lead and
his support is still rising. With many hopes pinned on his
victory, the opposition leader is the man of the hour. And much to
the regime's dismay, it's proving hard to find any major skeletons
in this closet.

    The Day After
    by Zoran Kusovac
    (Free Access)
    On election day, opposition leader Vojislav Kostunica will
defeat incumbent President Slobodan Milosevic, who will step down
and allow a new government to take shape. International sanctions
and embargoes will be lifted. Much-needed investment will return
to Serbia. The country will be prosperous and peaceful. That is a
best-case scenario. In reality, Milosevic will never step down. As
a man wanted by The Hague, the Yugoslav president has nothing to
lose by cheating or by ignoring the results. And what the citizens
of Yugoslavia fear most, is post-election bloodshed.

    Waking Up a Sleepy Serbia
    by Dragan Stojkovic
    (Free Access)
    Otpor--an opposition movement founded by Belgrade University
students--is trying to wake Yugoslavia up from its apathy and
stupor. In the last 10 years, Yugoslavs have had notions of civic
responsibility worn away. Now, Otpor is working hard to repair the
damage. The regime is running scared and has stepped up its
repressive campaign against the group.

    Infecting Yugoslavia
    by Ivan Milenkovic
    (Free Access)
    Slobodan Milosevic has worked to destroy his country's social
tissue so that it can not show resistance to his self-sufficient
rule. It would be hard to find a part of the social organism that
has not been touched by the pathology of his regime. Yugoslav
presidential, parliamentary, and municipal elections, to be held
on 24 September, will show just how deep this pathology is--or,
perhaps, just how capable Milosevic is of extending it.

    The Miracle-Cure Campaign
    by Petar Lukovic
    (Free Access)
    It was about two weeks ago that the regime of Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic kicked off its Health
Ministry-sponsored election campaign, in which it has promised the
citizens of Serbia that overnight they would have all that has
been lacking for over a decade. There will be plenty of vital
medicines, queues in hospitals will diminish, and doctors will
cure like they've never cured before. But skeptics--and there are
many--opine that much-needed and long-overdue health reforms are
more likely to be the result of a divine miracle than the actions
of Milosevic.

    Where the Parties Stand
    (Free Access)
    With elections fast approaching, TOL takes a look at the key