Issue No. 301/302 - December 20, 2002
Contents:
1. Bosnia and Herzegovina: A COUNTRY READY TO
COLLAPSE
by Radenko Udovicic
2. FRY/ Montenegro: FEAR OF SERBIAN SYNDROME
by Slobodan Rackovic
3. Macedonia: WITHOUT EUROPEAN DREAMS
by Zvezdan Georgievski
_________________________________________________________
Bosnia and Herzegovina: A COUNTRY READY TO
COLLAPSE
by Radenko Udovicic
The announcement of the
ten candidate member countries in the European Union got the Bosnian public
thinking and worrying. Only now are they becoming aware how far this shaky
country is from being considered for full-fledged membership in the European
family. Promises of various administrations that Bosnia was moving towards
Europe and that it would soon find itself in the EU have been burst like
a soap bubble after numerous articles being published around the accession
process that included all the conditions and procedures needed for future
members to satisfy before achieving the final goal. Only now—due to past
omissions of the media—do citizens have a detailed account of what Bosnia
is lacking in order only to start negotiations about entering the EU.
Erhard Busek, coordinator of the Stability Pact in Southeastern Europe,
recently made this realistic assessment: "Do you think that Europe could
accept membership talks with a country where a European army is between
two opposed political sides with dominant opinion believing that another
war would start if the Europeans withdrew?" His statement was not ill intentioned,
but it served as a warning nevertheless to local politicians that they
should carry out a more effective political program with greater inter-ethnic
tolerance.
Bosnia and Herzegovina differs
from all other east European countries because it is governed under a sort
of international protectorate. According to the Dayton Accords, which stopped
the war in 1995, the Office of the High Representative [nominated by the
Peace Implementation Council and approved by the U.N. Security Council]
was the person who would take care of the civil implementation of the peace
agreement. This meant a Western diplomat with great diplomatic experience
had to be nominated. In cooperation with numerous clerks in his office,
this person was tasked with coordinating disputed and unclear terms of
the agreement that deeply entrenched nationalist forces interpreted to
their advantage. However, it was soon made clear that politicians could
not reach agreement on most key issues in the country. As a consequence,
following international conferences in 1997 and 1998, the international
community gave broader authority to the High Representative, enabling him
to impose decisions, directives and laws when there was a lack of agreement
among Bosnian politicians regarding implementation of the Dayton Accord
and the functioning of Bosnia as a whole.
There have been four High
Representatives so far who have passed dozens of very important decisions
and laws. They imposed a unique car license, personal documents, and passports;
passed key laws on property return, election rules, public radio, and TV;
and even relieved politicians who, according to international opinion threatened
Bosnian integrity. Among these there were also politicians in the highest
positions, like Nikola Poplasen, former president of Serb Republic, and
Ante Jelavic, Croat member of the Bosnian Presidency. However, the most
important decision in the sphere of laws was the pronouncement that all
three nations are constituent throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina. Due to
war, ethnic cleansing, and the creation of two national entities, the pre-war
equal status of Bosniaks and Croats in the Serb Republic as well as Serbs
in the Federation of B-H was endangered. However, the constitutions of
each entity and various laws were changed so that nations are now formally
equal among themselves.
It is interesting to take
note that High Representatives did not impose decisions out of the blue
but were the result of incomplete agreements reached previously between
opposed parties. In such a way, the international community paved the road
for Bosnia to go forward and become a state, something which during the
war and immediately afterwards seemed like an idea out of science fiction.
This international influence on Bosnia's development led to a situation
in which the country has very modern laws harmonized or even directly taken
from highly developed Western countries, like the law about access to information,
on public radio and TV, responsibility of police before the citizens, and
so on. Laws, however, must be implemented in everyday life and that is
where the problems begin. Politicians, especially those on the local level,
posed various obstructions. Where the case has been transparent, High Representatives
intervened, relieving such politicians of their office. But even this attempt
at high accountability did not do enough in this country's generally bleak
political situation.
The last elections held
in October saw a return to power of the so-called hard-line nationalist
parties that ruled over Bosnia for 10 years, making a significant impact
on a bloody era. Many were inclined to say that the return of nationalists
after a short interregnum of moderate forces would bring a new dark age
to the country. However, democratic processes in Bosnia are well advanced
and nationalist parties appear ready for democratic reforms and cooperation
with the country's undisputed boss, High Representative Paddy Ashdown.
Even he said that former nationalists had changed their image and that
he expected them now to lead the country forward. Since he took the mandate
over from the Austrian Wolfgang Petritsch, Ashdown said many times that
the main Bosnian problem was not nationalism anymore, but the economy,
crime, and corruption. "If some radical political and economic changes
aimed at improving the economy are not implemented next year, the country
will collapse," he warned during his Christmas address to representatives
in the Bosnian parliament.
The economic situation is
indeed difficult, even though the consequences of years of bad management
have been masked by the international community and various foreign donors
pumping money into the country for reconstruction and restarting the economy.
It yielded short-term results because some firms, especially various NGOs,
profited from it. But they did not opt for self-sustainability and mostly
depended on donations, projects, and ad hoc jobs related to the international
community. Bosnian capital was mostly invested in services and trade while
production was completely ignored. The proportion of imports to exports
is 80 to 20 percent, with a significant part of the export tied to various
compensations in goods. Ashdown words to MPs, "export, export, export,"
while appearing patronizing are basically the only possible solution for
the economy. Of course, in order to improve exports, one needs to increase
production, requiring greater domestic and foreign investment. But the
circles need to be closed.
Afghanistan, Eastern Timor,
Kosovo, tomorrow maybe Palestine are now new destinations of foreign aid.
The world public and donors are tired of almost ten years of Bosnian problems
and the money sent to this country is decreasing, reflected especially
in reconstruction aid for the return of refugees. While international actors
still emphasize their readiness to help, they want more participation from
the locals.
High Representative Paddy
Ashdown has promised that the international community will not give up
on Bosnia, but he added that foreign aid is decreasing and that it was
the last chance to do something in order to jump start a failing economy
and increase the system's efficiency. Ashdown identified two of the biggest
problems as crime and corruption and he asked the parliament to eradicate
them. As an illustration, Bosnia is losing 1.2 billion marks per year to
criminals due to tax and customs evasions, which is three times the state
budget.
In order to address the
problem, the international community has made several moves. Recently,
the High Representative instituted a law on value added tax that should
unite the two entities' tax systems now. Then, he imposed the Law on the
Council of Ministers, which basically establishes the council as a government
of the prime minister and not one with veto rights for ministers, the single
greatest obstacle to the government's efficiency and progress. One can
add that five months ago the international community assisted in creation
of the State Border Service, which is now controlling all borders, and
that it is preparing a special commission to oversee the work of politicians
and any possible corruption.
The bad economic situation
is worsened by the still unresolved refugee crisis in Bosnia. The war caused
1.6 million refugees or internally displaced persons, meaning that 40 percent
of the Bosnian population fled their homes. Their return is going on slowly
due to political and economic obstacles. Hundreds of thousands of people
are living from one day to another trying to win their place in society.
Besides not being able to find, they cannot get their property, occupied
by others, back. Even if they manage to get it back, they cannot survive
because they are another nationality and are not accepted in the society.
Approximately 908,000 people
have returned to their homes in Bosnia since the war. Estimates are that
another 500,000 citizens have not yet returned. What is especially pessimistic
is the fact that of these, almost 200,000 people have lost all interest
in returning to Bosnia and have assimilated in other countries. For them,
Bosnia is already lost. And it could become lost for almost 4 million others
if local politicians and international community don't implement necessary
reforms.
Coordinator of the Stability
Pact Erhardt Busek said that Bosnia could not enter Europe with a High
Representative still in charge. Of course not, but it does not mean this
country should get rid of him. It was the High Representative who brought
Bosnia into the Council of Europe last spring with his interventions, pressures,
and impositions in the field of basic laws. It is Bosnia's first step towards
integration into Europe. It is difficult to expect that laws only will
prompt country into Europe, especially if they are imposed, but they are
a good basis for future governments if they took their implementation more
energetically and honestly.
• • •
FRY/Montenegro: TRAFFICKING SCANDAL GIVES RISE TO SERBIAN SYNDROME
by Slobodan Rackovic
Since almost all opposition parties announced that they would boycott presidential elections set for December 22, it is difficult to believe that they could succeed, especially with the Montenegrin public concentrated on a trafficking scandal.
Last May, European technocrats in Brussels prevented Montenegro from holding a referendum on independence and coerced the country to sign the Belgrade Agreement in another try at joint life with Serbia. According to international analysts, the main reasons behind the EU persuading Montenegro to drop independence was the struggle to aid Serbia in democratic reforms. The EU, however, did not take into account the counter-effects of its struggle to preserve a fourth Yugoslavia, now under different name, at all costs. In Montenegro, which maintained a high degree of independence from Belgrade during the last five years, these effects are serious.
First, there is a considerable apathy among citizens, especially among those who favor Montenegrin independence. It caused a decline of creativity and productivity, disinterest in politics, and crisis in implementation of already well-advanced reforms. A decline in the standard of living is evident, as is a rising rate of crime. Just before the presidential elections, Minister of internal affairs Andrija Jovicevic, presented to the public figures on widespread trafficking of women coming from Eastern European countries, but also from Serbia and Montenegro itself. For the public it was enough to hear from a Moldavian woman, S.C., who revealed how her bosses traded her as goods and offered her on sex market, after sexually abusing her on the way, and to hear she was the 50th such case reported to NGOs as trafficking victims in the last two years! "Montenegro is both a transit country and a destination country, but also a country that produces trafficking in this part of Europe," said the head of "Safe House for Women" in Podgorica, Ljiljana Raicevic. She was confirming recent information coming from a London conference on crime in the Balkans in which it was estimated that 200,000 sold women—prostitutes and strippers—circulate the peninsula every year. If Montenegro is only a small link in this chain, it shouldn't be hard to imagine the extent of it in Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia and Kosovo.
The first victims of the scandals were deputy state prosecutor Zoran Piperovic, as well as other names from the legislative, political, and police establishment. The circle of trafficking is being unraveled quickly, so there are many people under investigation, with new names being added every day. Just when joint activities of the police, NGOs, and independent media started giving results in the fight against this evil, Milo Djukanovic, the former president who is now prime minister of the new government, left out minister Jovicevic from his cabinet and named his loyal follower Dusko Markovic, current head of the State Security Service, as minister of interior. It caused an avalanche of dissatisfaction among the public, but also in political circles, even among
Djukanovic's coalition partners from the Social-Democrat Party, which declined its support. It is almost a uniform opinion that Djukanovic's intention is to stop or slow down police action not only in fighting sex trafficking but also in other problems of society (corruption, bribery, cigarette smuggling, illegal profits. . .). There were international warnings that minister Jovicevic must be allowed to continue his action, even if it promises a crackdown not only on crime in Montenegro but in its vicinity, as well. Montenegro saw a visit of Helga Conrad, who presides over the Task Force against human trafficking at the Stability Pact who asked Djukanovic to extend mandate to minister Jovicevic.
"Politicians from the Stability Pact will ask Djukanovic why did he replace Jovicevic," said Mrs. Konrad from Warsaw to the press. OSCE sent to Podgorica its expert for witness protection Ulrike Oatzke, who is now, together with police and activists from women NGOs, taking care of the Moldavian woman S.C. as a key witness in the Montenegrin trafficking scandal.
The unfortunate woman from Moldova is now indirectly influencing Montenegrin politics because of the great public unhappiness caused by Jovicevic's forced replacement and prolonging the outcome of trafficking investigation. Independent intellectuals have turned their backs on
Djukanovic, although they used to be very loyal to his efforts on behalf of Montenegrin independence. A group of them sent him a letter asking him to put together a new, truly reformist government. They see it as a last chance not only for Djukanovic and the ruling Democratic Socialists' Party but also for Montenegro. Reminding Djukanovic that the early [October 20] parliamentary elections were decisively won on a platform of reforms and preservation of elementary national and state dignity of Montenegro, the signatories write that events since the elections, and especially in the last several days, have brought into question the sincerity of the politics Djukanovic has publicly supported since 1997. "You have already endangered both goals of [reforms and preserving national state dignity] with your decisions, and dashed the hopes of many citizens who voted for that program. First you accepted the Constitutional Charter of a new Montenegrin-Serbian community, which is a bad solution for [Montenegro]. Second, you have proposed all the old people for the key offices in your government, despite their inability to fight against organized crime and for the difficult reforms ahead," the authors conclude. The group of independent intellectuals warns Djukanovic that he must put Montenegrin interests above his arrogance, partisan and personal interests.
In this electrified political atmosphere, Montenegrins will come out to elections on Sunday, December 22, and vote for a new president. Chances for holding successful elections are small, and the so-called Serbian syndrome (presidential elections in Serbia have now failed two times in a row) is becoming more likely. There aren't many people who believe that on Sunday 230,000 out of 460,000 registered voters will participate in elections, especially since a great majority of pro-Serbian opposition asked their supporters to abstain. The opposition did not put up a strong candidate who could fight on equal terms with the candidate of Djukanovic's political camp, Filip Vujanovic, a 45-year old advocate who has served as minister of justice, minister of police, and then prime minister and is now president of Montenegrin parliament. The other ten candidates are minor politicians, almost all of them independent, so that Sunday's elections will not even have the necessary character of a competitive race with which to attract 50 percent plus one of the voters. In the October 20th parliamentary elections, Djukanovic and Vujanovic attracted 170,000 voters. Even in the event of a massive turnout of their own electoral base, there are 60,000 people short of the necessary minimum. Will citizens listen to the appeal of the international community, especially the OSCE, to come out and vote, or to opposition calls for a boycott? The answer will be seen on Sunday evening, but it is certain that failure of presidential elections would cause much political damage to Montenegro.
This very vulnerable country would enter 2003, as well as the process of final sensitive talks with Serbia about the joint state, weaker. However, Montenegrin authorities hope there will not be failure, because Montenegrins have gotten used to go out on voting day. Last time, on October 20, almost 80 percent turned out.
• • •
Macedonia: WITHOUT EUROPEAN DREAMS
by Zvezdan Georgievski
Macedonia was not too disappointed by not being invited to join the NATO alliance. According to defense minister Vlado Buckovski, the country which only several months ago claimed that NATO was to blame for all its problems and calling it an organization controlling the war in Macedonia, could hardly have expected much. However, both Buckovski and Macedonian president Boris Trajkovski think that Macedonia will be asked to join alliance in 2004. They both agree it is an optimistic plan, but they do not rule it out as impossible. Therefore Trajkovski started an initiative for a joint regional approach for entrance into NATO. According to Trajkovski, this initiative should also include Croatia and Albania, countries from the regions that came empty-handed regarding NATO membership.
Despite assurance on the side of president Trajkovski, his initiative didn't meet much resonance in Macedonian public. There is still a strong anti-NATO sentiment in the country, so that even the NATO ambassador to Macedonia, Nicholas Bigman, said that holding a referendum about entry into NATO alliance would be counter-productive, forecasting his view that the referendum would fail and thus harm the idea of Macedonian membership in the alliance.
Even if Macedonia does not enter NATO, it is anyhow firmly entrenched in the country. The idea to replace the NATO "Amber Fox" mission with European forces failed, and it was succeeded by the new NATO troop mission "Allied Harmony." The new mission was cut in half, with just 450 soldiers in the field that mainly offer logistic support in implementation of the so-called Framework Agreement for a lasting peace in Macedonia and the region. Its basic task will be ensuring the stability of borders between Macedonia and Kosovo as well as between Macedonia and Albania, where a majority of border incidents have taken place. The aim is to gradually establish joint Macedonian-Albanian border keeping, with border patrols made out of soldiers from both countries. According to Buckovski, such a principle would enable more relaxed relations between the two countries, because border incidents have created the most tensions between Albania and Macedonia. Improvement of relations between the two is illustrated not only by the initiative for joint entrance into NATO but also by a recent visit of prime minister Branko Crvenkovski to Albania, to the town of Pustec where a majority of Albanian Macedonians live. During the visit, Nano and Crvenkovski rather easily agreed on several proposals for making the lives of Albanian Macedonians easier.
The new NATO mission will last the usual six months. President Trajkovski feels that prolonging it will be unnecessary due to a relaxed security situation. Ambassador Bigman on the other hand has a different opinion that a longer stay of NATO is needed.
After establishment of the coalition government of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, led by Crvenkovski, the Party of Macedonian Albanians, and the Democratic Union for Integration, led by former Albanian guerilla leader Ali Ahmeti, as well as the surface return of stabilization in inter-ethnic relations, Macedonia has decided to take a more role in the process of integration into Europe. For the first time since Macedonian independence, there is a government department for integration into Europe, led by Deputy Prime Minister Radmila Secerinska and also involving President Trajkovski, although his position is rapidly weakening. The government and president are on two different courses, since Trajkovski is a member of the opposition VMRO-DPMNE. Meanwhile, relations between Trajkovski and his party rapidly deteriorated due to his own ideas about European Union and NATO alliance. Not having any real political support within the country, Trajkovski has been more active in foreign politics. Following the initiative for a joint entrance into NATO alliance, Trajkovski started a regional initiative for entering the EU. He feels that neighboring countries will enter the EU more easily if taken as a region than individually. In the region he counts all former Yugoslav republic countries that were left out of the EU plus Albania. This approach met positive reactions from the European Union and even Macedonian government, but met with no reaction from the Macedonian public, which considers presidential elections as less than serious. In an interview, President Trajkovski even attacked the media, arguing that they did not understand the importance of his political decisions, which he believes will be seen at the upcoming EU summit in Solun next year.
Notwithstanding these initiatives, Macedonia is economically destroyed, mired in corruption and crime, and tired of recent conflict. It is almost coming to terms with the fact that there is no place for it in the new European society. At least this generation of Macedonians and will not enjoy the benefits of integration.